The fragility of Russia's agricultural production and implications for food security

Russia has experienced a remarkable agricultural recovery during the past 20 years. Yet, food production is heavily concentrated in the top five and top ten regions. Russia's agricultural recovery is narrow because leading regions account for a disproportional percentage of output. That narrowness fosters fragility, which suggests that a downturn in production among main producers may cause a spike in food insecurity. Second tier regions are not able to compensate for significant production declines in the top ten. The article explores four scenarios for narrowness going forward: continuation, expansion, slow decline, and collapse. Of the four scenarios, expansion is the only one that is either unlikely to occur or has not already occurred. The upshot is that Russia's agricultural production base will remain narrow and fragile, a fact that impacts domestic food security and food security in its export markets.