A novel immune-related model to predict prognosis and responsiveness to checkpoint and angiogenesis blockade therapy in advanced renal cancer

Background: Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) and anti-angiogenic drug combination has prolonged the survival of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC). However, not all patients receive clinical benefits from this intervention. In this study, we aimed to establish a promising immune-related prognostic model to stratify the patients responding to ICB and anti-angiogenic drug combination and facilitate the development of personalized therapies for patients with RCC. Materials and methods: Based on clinical annotations and RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) data of 407 patients with advanced RCC from the IMmotion151 cohort, nine immune-associated differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between responders and non-responders to atezolizumab (anti-programmed death-ligand 1 antibody) plus bevacizumab (anti-vascular endothelial growth factor antibody) treatment were identified via weighted gene co-expression network analysis. We also conducted single-sample gene set enrichment analysis to develop a novel immune-related risk score (IRS) model and further estimate the prognosis of patients with RCC by predicting their sensitivity to chemotherapy and responsiveness to immunotherapy. IRS model was further validated using the JAVELIN Renal 101 cohort, the E-MTAB-3218 cohort, the IMvigor210 and GSE78220 cohort. Predictive significance of the IRS model for advanced RCC was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: The IRS model was constructed using nine immune-associated DEGs: SPINK5, SEMA3E, ROBO2, BMP5, ORM1, CRP, CTSE, PMCH and CCL3L1. Advanced RCC patients with high IRS had a high risk of undesirable clinical outcomes (hazard ratio = 1.91; 95% confidence interval = 1.43-2.55; P < 0.0001). Transcriptome analysis revealed that the IRS-low group exhibited significantly high expression levels of CD8(+) T effectors, antigen-processing machinery, and immune checkpoints, whereas the epithelial-mesenchymal transition pathway was enriched in the IRS-high group. IRS model effectively differentiated the responders from non-responders to ICB combined with angiogenesis blockade therapy or immunotherapy alone, with area under the curve values of 0.822 in the IMmotion151 cohort, 0.751 in the JAVELIN Renal 101 cohort, and 0.776 in the E-MTAB-3218 cohort. Conclusion: IRS model is a reliable and robust immune signature that can be used for patient selection to optimize the efficacy of ICB plus anti-angiogenic drug therapies in patients with advanced RCC.