Does agricultural water-saving policy improve food security? Evidence from the Yellow River Basin in China

For our empirical research, the 2012 implementation of China's National Agricultural Water-Saving Outline serves as a quasi-experiment. In addition, one of the main regions in China for grain production is the Yellow River Basin. Based on this, we utilize a Difference-in-Difference (DID) empirical technique to assess the impact of the agricultural water-saving policy on food security using data from prefectures in China's Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020. According to the estimated results, grain production has greatly increased as a result of the agricultural water-saving policy. This conclusion still holds when other water-related policies are considered. The agricultural water-saving policy may enhance other input factors in grain production by assuring water demand, which is one possible mechanism of the influence. The empirical results show that the policy indeed increases the water productivity in agricultural production, which will ensure the effective water utilization in agricultural production, and the grain sown area, which is the most important production factor in agriculture. In heterogeneity analysis, the impact of the policy on food security is the largest in the lower reach, followed by the middle reach and the smallest in the upper reach in the Yellow River Basin.