Research on the Factors Influencing CO2 Emission Reduction in High-Energy-Consumption Industries under Carbon Peak

In the context of reaching peak carbon emissions, it is crucial to develop carbon reduction strategies for high-energy-consuming industries as part of a broader societal transition from dependence on high-pollution energy sources to low-pollution alternatives. This study focuses on carbon emission reduction in the non-ferrous metal industry, which is known for its significant energy consumption. It employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model to conduct empirical analyses from three perspectives: carbon emission decomposition, regionalization analysis, and carbon emission prediction. The objective is to explore the carbon emission characteristics of high-energy-consuming industries in China and provide theoretical support for future policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions in these industries. The findings reveal that the economic scale of the non-ferrous metal industry has a positive correlation with carbon emissions, while carbon emission coefficients exhibit a negative correlation. Moreover, in the prediction scenarios considered, the increase in carbon emissions resulting from the economic-scale factor accounted for 75.28%, 87.46%, and 65.21% respectively, indicating that it has the most significant influence among all factors analyzed. The study further demonstrates that under stable and active emission reduction scenarios, the future potential for carbon dioxide emission reduction in the non-ferrous metal industry is estimated to reach 858.47 million tons and 1384.65 million tons, respectively. These figures represent twice and three times the emissions recorded in 2021. By analyzing the factors influencing emission reduction, targeted regulations can be implemented to develop practical and effective strategies for reducing carbon emissions in the industry. From the analysis conducted, it can be deduced that high-energy-consuming industries, particularly the non-ferrous metal industry, exhibit relatively high levels of carbon emissions. Consequently, it is imperative to implement proactive measures to reduce these emissions. Additionally, the industry's carbon emissions are heavily influenced by changes in economic scale due to its high dependence on it. This highlights the importance of considering economic factors when devising strategies to mitigate carbon emissions. Furthermore, the potential for improvement in the non-ferrous metal industry's energy structure and carbon emission coefficients is limited. Simply relying on technological innovation alone may not suffice to achieve significant emission reduction goals. Therefore, it becomes crucial for the government to develop tailored emission reduction targets and policies based on the industry's specific circumstances to attain optimal results.