Quantitative scoring of progression in transplant glomerulopathy using digital pathology may be superior to Banff cg scoring

Antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) is a major cause of kidney allograft failure. Biopsy-based surrogate endpoints reflecting ABMR progression on sequential biopsies that predict long-term outcome offer the potential to make treatment trials for ABMR feasible. However, the Banff transplant glomerulopathy (TG) scoring system (chronic glomerular injury score [cg]) relies on relatively crude and arbitrary ordinal grades and has low inter-observer concordance that currently limits its usefulness as a surrogate endpoint for ABMR progression in clinical drug trials. Here, we describe and validate a novel quantitative method for quantifying progression of TG in ABMR. Using digital pathology in sequential biopsies from 75 patients at various stages of ABMR, we scored all capillaries in the most affected glomeruli for basement membrane duplication that were correlated with allograft function, outcome, Banff lesion scores, and gene expression. Our digital scoring reflected TG progression better than the categorical Banff cg score and correlated with Banff ABMR and chronicity lesions, but not transcript changes. In multivariate analysis, the delta change between biopsies with serum creatinine and mean percent duplicated glomerular basement membranes was significantly associated with graft loss. Neither the delta in any Banff lesion scores (including cg) nor in gene expression was associated with outcome. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the digital pathology approach was superior to the conventional score for predicting graft failure. Thus, our digital pathology-based approach for scoring TG accurately assessed progression in TG. However, further validation as a potential surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for the treatment of ABMR is warranted.