Emissions-Adjusted International Trade for Sustainable Development in China: Evidence from dynamic autoregressive distributed lags model and kernel based regression

Efficient allocation of resources and transition towards cleaner sources of energy are among the key factors in minimizing the negative externalities arising from the growing dependency on fossil fuels. Moreover, environmentally benign trade policies are crucial due to the rapid expansion in global trade and comparative advantage. To explore the relationship between global trade and Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions (CBCE) in China in the context of renewable energy consumption and energy efficiency from 1990 Q1 to 2020 Q4, this paper employs the dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lags (Dynamic ARDL) model to evaluate the connection between international trade, renewable energy usage, energy efficiency, and CBCE, with the Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares analysis being used to determine the causal association. The findings reveal that GDP and imports are directly linked with CBCE in the long run, while exports, energy efficiency, and renewable energy consumption have a negative significant long-run and short-run influence on CBCE. In addition, exports help in the reduction of CBCE by sharing and adapting environmentally friendly technologies adopted in, for example, renewable energy and ecological advancements. Renewable energy promotes the quality of the environment, which is attributable to the performance of renewable energy and environmentally friendly technologies that directly stimulate the reduction of CBCE emissions. By cutting CBCE, energy efficiency tends to boost environmental quality. The research findings have noteworthy policy implications; trade enhances the quality of environment by introducing lower energy intensive production methods and technology that support sustainable development. As a result, this study advocated quite stringent policies in terms of aligning international trade orientation with environmental quality policy in China. Furthermore, energy efficiency policies are required to lower CBCE by focusing on high-energy-using industries and providing alternative clean energy sources.