Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

被引：8

作者：

O'Kane, Terence J. ^{[1
]}

Scaife, Adam A. ^{[2
,3
]}

Kushnir, Yochanan ^{[4
]}

Brookshaw, Anca ^{[5
]}

Buontempo, Carlo ^{[5
]}

Carlin, David ^{[6
]}

Connell, Richenda K. ^{[7
]}

Doblas-Reyes, Francisco ^{[8
,9
]}

Dunstone, Nick ^{[2
]}

Foerster, Kristian ^{[10
,11
]}

Graca, Antonio ^{[12
]}

Hobday, Alistair J. ^{[1
]}

Kitsios, Vassili ^{[13
]}

van der Laan, Larissa ^{[10
]}

Lockwood, Julia ^{[2
]}

Merryfield, William J. ^{[14
]}

Paxian, Andreas ^{[15
]}

Payne, Mark R. ^{[16
]}

Reader, M. Catherine ^{[14
]}

Saville, Geoffrey R. ^{[7
,17
]}

Smith, Doug ^{[2
]}

Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan ^{[8
]}

Caltabiano, Nico ^{[18
]}

Carman, Jessie ^{[19
]}

Hawkins, Ed ^{[20
]}

Keenlyside, Noel ^{[21
,22
]}

Kumar, Arun ^{[23
]}

Matei, Daniela ^{[24
]}

Pohlmann, Holger ^{[15
]}

Power, Scott ^{[25
,26
]}

Raphael, Marilyn ^{[27
]}

Sparrow, Michael ^{[18
]}

Wu, Bo ^{[28
]}

机构：

[1] CSIRO Environm, Hobart, Tas, Australia

[2] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, England

[3] Exeter Univ, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, England

[4] Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA

[5] European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, England

[6] UN, New York, NY USA

[7] Willis Towers Watson, New York, NY USA

[8] Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Barcelona, Spain

[9] Inst Catalana Recerca & Estudis Avancats ICREA, Barcelona, Spain

[10] Leibniz Univ Hannover, Inst Hydrol & Water Resources Management, Hannover, Germany

[11] Weihenstephan Triesdorf Univ Appl Sci, Inst Ecol & Landscape, Freising Weihenstephan, Germany

[12] Sogrape Vinhos, Avintes, Portugal

[13] CSIRO Environm, Aspendale, Vic, Australia

[14] Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada

[15] Deutsch Wetterdienst DWD, Offenbach, Germany

[16] Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark

[17] Caniopus Grp, London, England

[18] WMO, WCRP Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland

[19] NOAA, Off Ocean Atmospher Res, Weather Program Off, Silver Spring, MD USA

[20] Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Dept Meteorol, Reading, England

[21] Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, Bergen, Norway

[22] Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway

[23] NOAA Climate Predict Ctr, Natl Ctr Environm Predict NCEP, College Pk, MD USA

[24] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany

[25] Univ Southern Queensland, Ctr Appl Climate Sci, Townsville, Qld, Australia

[26] Monash Univ, Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Climate Extr, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[27] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Geog, Los Angeles, CA USA

[28] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geoph, Beijing, Peoples R China

来源：

FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE | 2023年 / 5卷

基金：

欧盟地平线“2020”;

关键词：

decadal predictions; climate risk; climate forecast application; climate forecast information; operational climate prediction; ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; MULTIYEAR PREDICTABILITY; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION; RECENT INCREASE; EL-NINO; TIME; VARIABILITY; MANAGEMENT; FORECASTS;

D O I：

10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy.

引用

页数：15

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