GIS-based assessment of land use for predicting increase in settlements in Al Ahsa Metropolitan Area, Saudi Arabia for the year 2032

Al Ahsa Metropolitan Area (AMA), located in the Eastern Region of Saudi Arabia, has witnessed rapid population growth with remarkable urban expansion during the past few decades due to the discovery of oil. Because of this rapid growth, AMA is currently exposed to many short and long-term social, economic, and environmental challenges that need to be studied and assessed to provide solutions for the betterment of the population. This study examines the historical growth of AMA by using Geographical Information System data and satellite image classification tech-niques for the last 30 years. The results show that the total urban area of AMA has significantly increased from 199 sq. km. to 276 sq. km. during the past 30 years from 1992 to 2022 with a sharp increase of 25.5 % in the last 10 years only. Statistical analysis of the historical data predicted an increase of 26.8 % in the area of settlements during the next decade up to the Year 2032. After a study of land use maps it was also observed that the increase in settlements caused a decrease in vegetation to 18 % in the last decade. The research presents beneficial statistics which shall help the decision-makers and related authorities in managing the development process in the area in a better and more sustainable manner.(c) 2022 THE AUTHOR. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).