Clinicopathological features of differentiated thyroid carcinoma as predictors of the effects of radioactive iodine therapy

Background: Patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) usually have an excellent prognosis; however, 5 %-15 % develop radioactive iodine-refractory (RAIR) DTC (RAIR-DTC), which has a poor prognosis and limited treatment options. The aim of the present study was to investigate the clinicopathological characteristics of RAIR-DTC in order to provide clinical evidence for timely prediction of the effects of iodine therapy.Methods: Clinicopathological data for 44 patients with RAIR-DTC and 50 patients with radioiodine-avid DTC (RAIA-DTC) were retrospectively analyzed. The risk factors for RAIR-DTC were evaluated and a RAIR-DTC prediction model was established.Results: RAIR-DTC showed unique clinicopathological features that differed from those of RAIA-DTC; these included age >55 years, a high-risk histological subtype, a large tumor size, a late TNM stage, calcification, distant metastasis, and more than six metastatic lymph nodes. Patients with RAIR-DTC also developed earlier tumor progression. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that distant metastasis, a high-risk histological subtype, and a maximum tumor diameter of >= 12.5 mm were independent risk factors for RAIR-DTC, and the specificity and sensitivity of a combination of these three parameters for the prediction of RAIR-DTC were 98.0 % and 56.8 %, respectively. Decision curve analysis and the calibration curve revealed that the combined prediction of these three parameters had good repeatability and accuracy.Conclusion: The clinicopathological features of DTC can effectively predict the effects of iodine therapy. A combination of distant metastasis, a high-risk histological subtype, and a maximum tumor diameter of >= 12.5 mm showed significantly higher prediction accuracy.