Reliable Prostate Cancer Risk Mapping From MRI Using Targeted and Systematic Core Needle Biopsy Histopathology

Objective: To compute a dense prostate cancer risk map for the individual patient post-biopsy from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to provide a more reliable evaluation of its fitness in prostate regions that were not identified as suspicious for cancer by a human-reader in pre- and intra-biopsy imaging analysis. Methods: Low-level pre-biopsy MRI biomarkers from targeted and non-targeted biopsy locations were extracted and statistically tested for representativeness against biomarkers from non-biopsied prostate regions. A probabilistic machine learning classifier was optimized to map biomarkers to their core-level pathology, followed by extrapolation of pathology scores to non-biopsied prostate regions. Goodness-of-fit was assessed at targeted and non-targeted biopsy locations for the post-biopsy individual patient. Results: Our experiments showed high predictability of imaging biomarkers in differentiating histopathology scores in thousands of non-targeted core-biopsy locations (ROC-AUCs: 0.85-0.88), but also high variability between patients (Median ROC-AUC [IQR]: 0.81-0.89 [0.29-0.40]). Conclusion: The sparseness of prostate biopsy data makes the validation of a whole gland risk mapping a non-trivial task. Previous studies i) focused on targeted-biopsy locations although biopsy-specimens drawn from systematically scattered locations across the prostate constitute a more representative sample to non-biopsied regions, and ii) estimated prediction-power across predicted instances (e.g., biopsy specimens) with no patient distinction, which may lead to unreliable estimation of model fitness to the individual patient due to variation between patients in instance count, imaging characteristics, and pathologies. Significance: This study proposes a personalized whole-gland prostate cancer risk mapping post-biopsy to allow clinicians to better stage and personalize focal therapy treatment plans.