Mean species responses predict effects of environmental change on coexistence

被引:3
|
作者
De Laender, Frederik [1 ]
Carpentier, Camille [1 ]
Carletti, Timoteo [2 ]
Song, Chuliang [3 ]
Rumschlag, Samantha L. [4 ,5 ]
Mahon, Michael B. [4 ,5 ]
Simonin, Marie [6 ]
Meszena, Geza [7 ,8 ]
Barabas, Gyorgy [9 ]
机构
[1] Univ Namur, Res Unit Environm & Evolutionary Biol, NaXys, ILEE, Namur, Belgium
[2] Univ Namur, Dept Math & naXys, Namur, Belgium
[3] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ USA
[4] Univ Notre Dame, Environm Change Initiat, Dept Biol Sci, Notre Dame, IN USA
[5] Univ Notre Dame, Eck Inst Global Hlth, Notre Dame, IN USA
[6] Univ Angers, Inst Agro, INRAE, IRHS,SFR,QUASAV, Angers, France
[7] Eotvos Lorand Univ, Dept Biol Phys, Budapest, Hungary
[8] Inst Evolut, Ctr Ecol Res, Budapest, Hungary
[9] Linkoping Univ, Div Ecol & Environm Modeling, Linkoping, Sweden
关键词
climate change; community ecology; environmental ecology; environmental stressors; food chains; food webs; global change; pollution; BETA-DIVERSITY; BIODIVERSITY; CHEMICALS; SHIFTS;
D O I
10.1111/ele.14278
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
Environmental change research is plagued by the curse of dimensionality: the number of communities at risk and the number of environmental drivers are both large. This raises the pressing question if a general understanding of ecological effects is achievable. Here, we show evidence that this is indeed possible. Using theoretical and simulation-based evidence for bi-and tritrophic communities, we show that environmental change effects on coexistence are proportional to mean species responses and depend on how trophic levels on average interact prior to environmental change. We then benchmark our findings using relevant cases of environmental change, showing that means of temperature optima and of species sensitivities to pollution predict concomitant effects on coexistence. Finally, we demonstrate how to apply our theory to the analysis of field data, finding support for effects of land use change on coexistence in natural invertebrate communities.
引用
收藏
页码:1535 / 1547
页数:13
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