Meta-analysis of global soil data identifies robust indicators for short-term changes in soil organic carbon stock following land use change

The restoration of degraded lands and minimizing the degradation of productive lands are at the forefront of many en-vironmental land management schemes around the world. A key indicator of soil productivity is soil organic carbon (SOC), which influences the provision of most soil ecosystem services. A major challenge in direct measurement of changes in SOC stock is that it is difficult to detect within a short timeframe relevant to land managers. In this study, we sought to identify suitable early indicators of changes in SOC stock and their drivers. A meta-analytical ap-proach was used to synthesize global data on the impacts of arable land conversion to other uses on total SOC stock, 12 different SOC fractions and three soil structural properties. The conversion of arable lands to forests and grasslands ac-counted for 91 % of the available land use change datasets used for the meta-analysis and were mostly from Asia and Europe. Land use change from arable lands led to 50 % (32-68 %) mean increase in both labile (microbial biomass C and particulate organic C - POC) and passive (microaggregate, 53-250 mu m diameter; and small macroaggregate, 250-2000 mu m diameter) SOC fractions as well as soil structural stability. There was also 37 % (24-50 %) mean increase in total SOC stock in the experimental fields where the various SOC fractions were measured. Only the POC and the organic carbon stored in small macroaggregates had strong correlation with total SOC: our findings reveal these two SOC fractions were predominantly controlled by biomass input to the soil rather than climatic factors and are thus suit-able candidate indicators of short-term changes in total SOC stock. Further field studies are recommended to validate the predictive power of the equations we developed in this study and the use of the SOC metrics under different land use change scenarios.