Spatial estimation and yearly trends in abundance-index of Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) in the East China Sea and Sea of Japan

Catch per unit effort (CPUE) of commercial fisheries is recommended to be standardized because various factors can affect catch rates. Recently, the spatio-temporal analysis has been required to standardize fishery data, because catch is spatially distributed in proportion to fishery distribution and not in proportion to fish abundance. We developed the spatio-temporal models for the CPUE of large- and medium-sized purse seine fisheries for the different age groups of Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) to evaluate the potential spatial distribution and estimate the annual trends in abundance index. Japanese jack mackerel is widely distributed in the East Asian seas, including the East China Sea and Sea of Japan, and is an important fishery resource in Japan. Our models were delta-lognormal generalized additive mixed models that incorporated the temporal components of year and month, and size of fishing vessels as categorical variables, and the identity of the fishing vessels as a random variable. The spatial component represented by the latitude and longitude points of the fishing location was smoothed using an isotropic bivariate function. The water temperature at a depth of 50 m was incorporated to detect the effects of environmental factors. After all combinations of explanatory variables were evaluated, the model with the lowest Bayesian information criterion score was selected as the best model. All the best models among both binomial models and lognormal models contained all explanatory variables, although the best binomial model for age 2 exclude the vessel size and the best lognormal model for age 0 exclude the water temperature at a depth of 50 m. Our results indicate that the potential distribution areas for all ages of Japanese jack mackerel exist on the continental shelf in the southern part of the East China Sea, the western side of Kyushu Island, and along Honshu Island in the western part of the Sea of Japan. In contrast, the main distribution areas with higher density for age 0 were segregated into two: the southwestern East China Sea and the coastal area off Kyushu Island, although fish over age 1 were widely distributed. The standardized CPUE was higher than the nominal CPUE for age 0 from 2015 to 2020, and the standardized CPUE was also higher for age 1 in 2020. These results were derived from spatial models that compensated for the lack of spatial data due to the recent decrease in fishing operations in the Southeast China Sea. The yearly trends of standardized CPUE for each age could be used for the age-structured stock assessment model such as a tuned virtual population analysis. Improving the accuracy of the abundance index helps to further improve the reliability of stock assessments.