Establishment of prognostic nomogram for T1N0M0 glottic squamous cell carcinoma: an SEER database analysis

Objectives The study aimed to construct prognostic models for OS and CSS in patients with T1N0M0 glottic SCC. In addition, we used PSM to re-assess the effect of surgery alone and radiation alone.Methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was searched for patients with confirmed T1N0M0 glottic SCC. Patients with complete data were randomly divided into the training and the validation cohort (7:3), Cox-regression analysis was performed to identified significant predictors of OS and CSS. PSM was used to mimic randomized controlled the trials. Kaplan-Meier survival method and log-rank tests were utilized for survival analysis.Results A total 1827 patients met the inclusion criteria. Survival analysis indicated that the patients who underwent the primary site surgery had a better OS (P = 0.002) and CSS (P = 0.008), compared with non-surgery patients. Cox-regression analysis proved that age, marital status, T1 stages, surgery, radiation, sequential treatments, and chemotherapy had significant effects on OS. While age, marital status, histologic grade, surgery, radiation, sequential treatments, and chemotherapy were substantially associated with CSS. Patients who received primary site surgery had a better OS and CSS, compared with non-surgical patients. Patients receiving radiation had a better CSS than non-radiation patients. However, patients who received sequential treatments or chemotherapy had a worse OS and CSS, compared with controlled groups. Predictive nomogram models were established to predict patients' prognosis with good consistency between the actual observation and the nomogram prediction. Before PSM, patients who underwent surgery alone had a better OS and CSS than those who received radiation alone. After PSM, patients receiving surgery still had a better OS than those receiving radiation. However, there were no statistically significant differences in CSS.Conclusions Nomogram models were developed to predict OS and CSS in patients with T1N0M0 glottic SCC. Primary site surgery could definitely increase OS and CSS, while radiation could significantly increase CSS. Using PSM, surgery alone could significantly enhance OS, as compared to radiation alone. Chemotherapy should not be recommended for early glottic carcinoma.