Socioeconomic driving forces of land use/cover changes in the semi-arid Harran plain and their probable implications on arising groundwater level, the GAP area of southeastern Turkiye

Recently, industrialization, urbanization and population growth are recognized as the most pervasive socioeconomic drivers contributing to land use/cover change on a global scale. However, the transition to irrigated agriculture, which has been initiated for the last 40 years in the Harran Plain, which is a semi-arid region where dry farming has been practiced for years, has brought along some socioeconomic driving forces. In this context, this study adopted two categorical approaches. The first is excessive-irrigated areas, danger of salinization, lack of drainage systems, unplanned urbanization, deterioration in groundwater quality, increasing population and migration. The second is the gradual rise of groundwater level triggered by excessive and unconscious irrigation. The implications caused by this rise are discussed in this study. Besides, in this study, the impact of these two categories was determined by the analysis of land use/cover changes. Our study utilized remote sensing and geographical information system to define and predict land use and land cover changes in the GAP area of southeastern in Turkiye. We found that in a 40-year period (from 1990 to 2020), a semi-arid Harran Plain has lost 12.33% of its steppe areas and 29.93% of dry agricultural areas. In addition, 33.44% from irrigated agricultural areas, 3.34% from forest areas and 5.48% from residential areas have gained. The results indicated that despite the decrease in dry agriculture and steppe, the increase in irrigated agricultural production, build-up area and woodland is the major driving forces contributing to land use-change in the Harran Plain. The study will contribute to the development of sustainable urban land use planning decisions and to predict possible future changes in the growth patterns in the plain.