Emergency management decision of urban rainstorm and flood disasters based on similar cases analysis

Under the background of global climate change and rapid development of urbanization, urban extreme occurs more frequently. In consideration of the existing problems in the emergency management decision-making of urban rainstorm and flood disasters in China, this study put forward the decision-making method of urban rainstorm and flood disaster emergency management based on similar cases analysis method. Based on the evolution process of urban waterlogging disaster, the problem attribute system of urban rainstorm and flood disasters was established. The case-based reasoning (CBR) method was used to calculate the global similarity to determine the best historical case. The case-based decision theory (CBDT) method was used to calculate the comprehensive utility value of alternative cases to determine the optimal alternative cases. The empirical analysis was took in Xi'an city, one of the national center cities of China. Results show that the CBR method was used to obtain the highest similarity of historical case P-3, which is 0.481. The CBDT method was used to calculate the high similarity of historical cases P-3 and P-4 to form the similar case set, with the similarity of 0.820 and 0.851, respectively. Combined with the event development, the comprehensive utility values were calculated. When the decision-maker pays the same attention to the emergency effect and response cost, the comprehensive utility value of P-3 and P-4 is 0.922 and 0.900, respectively, and P-3 is the best reference scheme. By comparison, the latter is more suitable. The results can provide scientific basis for emergency management of urban rainstorm and flood disasters.