Bearing capacity of shallow foundations considering geological uncertainty and soil spatial variability

The bearing capacity of shallow foundation is significantly affected by stratum uncertainty, mainly including geological uncertainty and spatial variability of soil properties. This paper aims to develop a general framework of shallow foundation to characterize the influence of two types of uncertainties on bearing capacity quantitatively. The geological uncertainty is simulated by Markov random field with different borehole schemes. The spatial variability is characterized using random field theory considering variations of the vertical scale of fluctuation. The bearing capacity of shallow foundation analysis is then conducted based on the proposed calculation framework. Borehole data and soil properties collected from Shenzhen Mawan are adopted as an example to illustrate the proposed framework. A reduction factor is developed to reveal the relationship of two category uncertainties on bearing capacity. A contribution rate indicator is defined to quantitatively evaluate the impact of two category uncertainties. Results show that the geological uncertainty greatly influences the calculation results when boreholes are sparse. However, spatial variability dominates in two kinds of uncertainties when having relatively more boreholes.