Decoupling trend and emission reduction potential of CO2 emissions from China's petrochemical industry

This paper aims to study the decoupling status and emission reduction potential of China's petrochemical industry from 1996 to 2019. Firstly, the IPCC method is used to calculate the CO2 emissions of the petrochemical industry in China, then the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method is used to identify the influencing factors of CO2 emissions, then the decoupling index is constructed to analyze the dependence of economic development on CO2 emissions, and finally the emission reduction potential model is established by using the influencing factors to reflect the CO2 emission reduction potential of the petrochemical industry. The results reveal that (1) the CO2 emissions can be divided into two stages of slow decline (1996-2000), (2015-2019), and one stage of rapid growth (2000-2015). (2) The energy intensity effect is the most effective factor to restrain CO2 emission, the economic growth effect is the key factor to promote CO2 emission. (3) From 1996 to 2019, there was a weak decoupling relationship between CO2 emission of petrochemical industry and economic development. Strong decoupling only occurred in 1996-2000 and 2015-2019. The CO2 emissions show only three decoupling score: I, II, and III. (4) CO2 mitigation occurred in four sub periods: 1996-2000, 2005-2010, 2010-2015, and 2015-2019. Therefore, the government should establish an energy-saving and environment-friendly industrial production system, intensify the use of clean energy, and optimize the labor force structure. It not only effectively strengthens the decoupling between the petrochemical industry and economic development, but also provides an empirical example for the carbon emission reduction and economic sustainable development of the petrochemical industry in other countries in the world.