Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in China's Coastal Areas and the Drivers of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size-The Case of 82 Cities

The energy consumption by industrial enterprises above designated size in China's coastal region is the main source of CO2 emissions. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution patterns and driving factors of CO2 emissions due to the energy consumption by industrial enterprises above designated size. Enterprises in 82 cities in China's coastal regions were studied from 2005 to 2020 based on their CO2 emissions and socio-economic data. The Exploring Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) methodology and Logarithmic mean Divisia Index decomposition (LMDI model) were used. The results show that, during the study period, energy-related CO2 emissions from industrial enterprises above designated size in China's coastal areas generally show a fluctuating upward trend. However, a few cities showed a trend from steady growth to a peak and then a slow decline, which may realize the "double carbon" target in advance. The spatial correlation of CO2 emission intensity showed a decreasing and then increasing trend, and there were spatial aggregation characteristics in some cities. Among the driving factors, the pull effect is higher than the inhibition effect; the output scale contributes the most to the pull effect, and labor productivity contributes the most to the inhibition effect. The results of this study have a certain reference value for the realization of the "double carbon" target in China's coastal regions.