A combination of bowel wall thickness and submucosa index is useful for estimating endoscopic improvement in ulcerative colitis: external validation of the Kyorin Ultrasound Criterion

Background Endoscopic improvement (EI; a Mayo endoscopic subscore of 0 or 1) is considered a therapeutic target in ulcerative colitis (UC) treatment. The potential to estimate EI non-invasively is an advantage of intestinal ultrasound (IUS). In a previous study, we developed a new sonographic parameter, the submucosa index (SMI), calculated as the ratio of the submucosal thickness to bowel wall thickness (BWT), and reported that combining BWT and SMI results in a practical and promising criterion for estimating EI without color Doppler assessment. This study aimed to validate the EI estimation ability of our B mode-based criterion, the 'Kyorin Ultrasound Criterion for UC' (KUC-UC; BWT < 3.8 mm and SMI < 50%), using an external cohort.Methods Patients with UC who underwent IUS and colonoscopy within 15 days without a treatment change between examinations were included. IUS findings, including BWT, SMI, and modified Limberg score for vascularity of the colon, were assessed.Results Forty-four test pairs of IUS and colonoscopy examinations in a total of 122 colonic segments were analyzed. The KUC-UC showed positive predictive value (PPV) of 94.6% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 80.0% for EI. In comparison, PPV and NPV were 85.4% and 79.0%, respectively, for the common criterion BWT of < 3 mm, and 83.0% and 82.7% for the validated Milan Ultrasound Criteria (a score of <= 6.2).Conclusions External validation showed that the KUC-UC using only B mode findings without complicated calculations is a feasible and accurate sonographic criterion for estimating the EI of UC.