Natural disasters related to rainfall trends in Espírito Santo, southeastern Brazil

Disasters caused by rainfall extremes represent social challenges in several sectors, especially in climate change scenarios. Along with changes in land use and land cover, this relationship may become more complex. Thus, the present study aimed to detect recent trends in the pattern of rainfall indicators and associate them with records of natural disasters and the evolution of changes in land use and land cover for the state of Espirito Santo, southeastern Brazil. Daily rainfall data from 77 rain gauge stations from 1970 to 2018 were used to analyze climate trends in different rainfall indicators obtained using the RClimDex software. Records of natural disasters from 1991 to 2020 in the state of Espirito Santo were gathered from the Brazilian Integrated Disaster Information System. Additionally, land use and land cover data from 1985 and 2019 were also used. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Sen slope were used to detect and quantify trends. In the Litoral Norte Espirito-santense and Noroeste Espirito-santense mesoregions of the State, trends of drought intensification are expected mainly in the regions further north. Associated with the great recent agricultural expansion in the region, this trend is concerning. The Central Espirito-santense and Sul Espirito-santense mesoregions tend to become wetter, which explains the recent increase in floods and heavy rainfall. No significant trends were found in the other regions studied. The approach adopted in this study has the potential to assist decision-making, implement mitigation and/or adaptation measures, and reduce the impacts of natural disasters in different regions of the world.