Scenario-Based Strategic Modeling of Road Transport Demand and Performance

被引:6
作者
Asgarpour, Sahand [1 ]
Hartmann, Andreas [1 ]
Gkiotsalitis, Konstantinos [2 ]
Neef, Robin [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Twente, Fac Engn Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Construct Management & Engn Grp, Enschede, Netherlands
[2] Univ Twente, Fac Engn Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Transport Engn & Management Grp, Enschede, Netherlands
[3] Univ Groningen, Fac Spatial Sci, Groningen, Netherlands
关键词
planning and analysis; transportation demand forecasting; systems modeling; transportation and sustainability; transportation energy; transportation network modeling and simulation; CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH; INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS; VEHICLES; SIMULATION; INCOME; FUTURE;
D O I
10.1177/03611981221143377
中图分类号
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号
0813 ;
摘要
Road infrastructure plays an important role in the economic and social development of societies. Thus, it requires effective and timely responses to cope with and embrace uncertain future changes. This study proposes an integrated, scenario-based strategic model which estimates transport demand, network performance, emission, and energy consumption. The model accounts for future economic, behavioral, policy, and technological developments by including four future scenarios and traces the possible changes in transport infrastructure performance. It primarily aims at supporting infrastructure decisions by quantifying a set of network and environmental performance indicators along their spatial-temporal dimension. Moreover, the effects of transport demand and energy transition policies on road performance are considered within each scenario. This model is applied in a case study region covering the main industrial and urban regions of the Netherlands. The discussed results provide insights into the possible infrastructure investments within each scenario and elaborate on the possible effects of policies.
引用
收藏
页码:1415 / 1440
页数:26
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