Precursory signals of summer precipitation over southern Central Asia: Combined effect of April soil moisture and sea surface temperature

被引:0
作者
Wei, Xinchen [1 ,2 ]
Liu, Ge [1 ,2 ,3 ,4 ,5 ]
Nan, Sulan [1 ,2 ]
Zhang, Ting [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Mao, Xin [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Feng, Yuhan [1 ,2 ]
Zhou, Yuwei [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Meteorol, Beijing, Peoples R China
[3] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteorol, Nanjing, Peoples R China
[4] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, 46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Ave, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
[5] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Meteorol, 46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Ave, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
关键词
Central Asia; precipitation; prediction; sea surface temperature; soil moisture; TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EVENT; LIQUID WATER PATH; TIBETAN PLATEAU; MICROPHYSICAL PROPERTIES; SOUTHWEST CHINA; VERTICAL STRUCTURES; HENGDUAN MOUNTAINS; TEMPORAL TRENDS; MEGACITIES; CLOUD;
D O I
10.1002/joc.8451
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
This study investigates the interannual variability of summer precipitation over Central Asia and explores its precursory signals through soil moisture (SM) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The results reveal that southern Central Asia (SCA) is a crucial SM-precipitation coupling region where summer precipitation is significantly linked to the preceding April SM in the Turan Plain, between the Caspian Sea and the Tibetan Plateau. The preceding Turan Plain SM (TPSM) anomaly can reflect the ensuing summer SM anomalies in the SCA region due to the persistence of SM. The higher TPSM can stimulate anomalous convective ascent and associated negative geopotential height anomalies over the SCA region, which is favourable for more SCA precipitation (SCAP) during summer. Additionally, Indian and Pacific Ocean SST (IPOS) anomalies can regulate the summer SCAP through ocean and land relay effects. The preceding April can reflect the subsequent summer SST anomalies across the northern Indian Ocean and South China Sea, which trigger a Matsuno-Gill response and induce anomalous water vapour transport into the SCA region, providing favourable moisture conditions for more SCAP during summer. Apart from such an ocean relay effect, the preceding IPOS can modulate the April TPSM first and then affect the summer SCAP through the land relay effect caused by persistent SM anomalies from April to summer. The combined effect of the preceding TPSM and IPOS on the summer SCAP is more pronounced than the respective effect of either TPSM or IPOS. Incorporating the TPSM signal as a supplementary precursor can enhance the predictive skill of summer SCAP. These findings may provide valuable insights into the reasons and prediction of the variability of summer SCAP. The preceding April Turan Plain soil moisture (TPSM) can affect summer southern Central Asian precipitation (SCAP) due to the persistence of the TPSM anomaly. Moreover, the TPSM may act as a bridge linking the preceding Indian and Pacific Ocean SST signal with summer SCAP, showing a land relay effect. image
引用
收藏
页码:2246 / 2264
页数:19
相关论文
共 77 条
[1]  
Adler RF, 2003, J HYDROMETEOROL, V4, P1147, DOI 10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO
[2]  
2
[3]   Precipitation response to extreme soil moisture conditions over the Mediterranean [J].
Ardilouze, Constantin ;
Materia, Stefano ;
Batte, Lauriane ;
Benassi, Marianna ;
Prodhomme, Chloe .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2022, 58 (7-8) :1927-1942
[4]   The land surface-atmosphere interaction: A review based on observational and global modeling perspectives [J].
Betts, AK ;
Ball, JH ;
Beljaars, ACM ;
Miller, MJ ;
Viterbo, PA .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 1996, 101 (D3) :7209-7225
[5]  
BRETHERTON CS, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P541, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0541:AIOMFF>2.0.CO
[6]  
2
[7]   Spring asymmetric mode in the tropical Indian Ocean: role of El Nino and IOD [J].
Chakravorty, Soumi ;
Chowdary, J. S. ;
Gnanaseelan, C. .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2013, 40 (5-6) :1467-1481
[8]   Increasing summer precipitation in arid Central Asia linked to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon in the recent decades [J].
Chen, Chunzhu ;
Zhang, Xiaojian ;
Lu, Huayu ;
Jin, Liya ;
Du, Yan ;
Chen, Fahu .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2021, 41 (02) :1024-1038
[9]   Spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal precipitation and their relationships with ENSO in Central Asia during 1901-2013 [J].
Chen Xi ;
Wang Shanshan ;
Hu Zengyun ;
Zhou Qiming ;
Hu Qi .
JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES, 2018, 28 (09) :1341-1368
[10]   Different Responses of Central Asian Precipitation to Strong and Weak El Nino Events [J].
Chen, Zhang ;
Wu, Renguang ;
Zhao, Yong ;
Wang, Zhibiao .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2022, 35 (05) :1497-1514