Conservative treatment of 3-and 4-part proximal humeral fractures: Can poor outcomes be predicted?

Purpose 3- and 4-part proximal humeral fractures are frequently treated conservatively. This study aims to combine radiographic, and patient reported outcome data to identify factors leading to poor outcomes following conservative treatment. Methods A retrospective local database analysis identified 3- and 4-part fractures. Radiographic and functional outcomes including Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS), QuickDash (QD), Subjective Shoulder Score (SSV) and VAS pain scores were collected. Results 104 patients were included at mean follow-up of 55 months. Analysis highlighted significant OSS differences in 3- versus 4-part (p = 0.027), dominant arm injury (p = 0.046), age > 65 (p = 0.006), varus coronal neck-shaft angle < 115 versus 115-155 degrees (p = 0.008), posterior head tilt > 155 degrees (p = 0.005), greater tuberosity (GT) displacement > 5 mm (p = 0.001), GT comminution (p = 0.01), medial calcar hinge displacement > 2 mm (p = 0.032). According to QD scores; age > 65 (p = 0.012), varus neck-shaft angle (p = 0.01), GT displacement > 5 mm (p = 0.001), GT comminution (p = 0.01), medial calcar hinge displacement > 2 mm (p = 0.006). SSV varied significantly with 3- versus 4-part fractures (p = 0.005), age > 65 (p = 0.04), varus neck-shaft angle (p = 0.001), posterior head tilt (p = 0.005), GT displacement > 5 mm (p = 0.001), GT comminution (p = 0.003), and medial calcar hinge displacement > 2 mm (p = 0.001). Conclusion We highlight risk factors for unfavourable outcomes following conservative management, aiding surgeons in shared decision-making and patient expectation management.