Possible source and migration pathway for early-summer immigrants of the oriental armyworm, Mythimna separata, arriving in northern Japan

The first generation of the oriental armyworm, Mythimna separata (Walker), arrives every year in northern Japan in mainly late May to early June. Analyses of weather maps suggested that this moth's immigration source could be eastern China, but the accuracy of those analyses was very limited due to the lack of a current standard trajectory analysis. The management of migratory insect pests such as M. separata benefits from the identification of the migration source(s) and pathway(s) of the pests. The present study provides a trajectory analysis for M. separata. Backward trajectories from trap sites in northern Japan were calculated with the HYSPLIT System developed by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, taking the flight speed of M. separata and the limitation of low ambient temperature at flight height into account. The ending times of the moth's short and long trajectories were set at dusk on the day before and two days before the possible arrival date, respectively. The results suggested two types of possible migration pathway: a multi-step pathway from Northeast China, the Korean Peninsula, and eastern Russia, which are destination areas of the first-generation's migration, and a direct pathway from seasonal main emigration areas in eastern China such as Jiangsu and Shandong provinces. These findings contribute to our understanding of the migration ecology of M. separata and can be used for the development of methods to predict the migration of this insect.