Association between estimated pulse wave velocity and risk of diabetes: A large sample size cohort study

Background and aim: Estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) measurements have good agreement with PWV measurements. However, the relationship between ePWV and the risk of new-onset diabetes remains unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate whether ePWV was associated with new-onset diabetes. Methods and results: Based on a secondary analysis of the Chinese Rich Health Care Group's cohort study, 211,809 participants who met the criteria were enrolled and divided into four groups based on the ePWV quartiles. Diabetes events are of interest as a result of the study. Over a mean follow-up of 3.12 years, 3000 male (1.41%) and 1173 female (0.55%) patients were diagnosed with new-onset diabetes. The cumulative incidence curves based on quartile subgroups showed that the Q4 group had a significantly higher overall incidence of diabetes than the other subgroups. A multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that ePWV was an independent predictor of new-onset diabetes (hazard ratio, 1.233; 95% confidence interval, 1.198-1.269; P < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the predictive value was higher than for age and blood pressure. The ePWV was treated as a continuous variable using MaxStat, which identified that the best cut-off point for diabetes risk was 8.47 m/s. A stratified analysis showed that the association between ePWV and the risk of diabetes remained significant in multiple strata. Conclusions: An elevated ePWV was independently associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes in Chinese adults. Thus, ePWV may be a reliable indicator of the risk of early diabetes. (C) 2023 The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.