Identifying the influence of natural and human factors on seasonal water quality in China: current situation of China's water environment and policy impact

Agricultural production, urbanization, and other anthropogenic activities, the major causes of surface water pollution in China, have dramatically altered hydrological processes and nutrient cycles. Identifying and quantifying the key factors affecting water quality are essential for the better prevention and management of water pollution. However, due to the limitations of traditional statistical analysis methods, it is difficult to evaluate the spatial changes and interactions of influencing factors on water quality. In addition, research on a national scale is difficult, as it involves large-scale and long-term water quality monitoring work. In this study, we collected and collated the monthly average concentrations of four water quality parameters, dissolved oxygen, ammonia nitrogen, chemical oxygen demand, and total phosphorous, based on data from 1547 water quality monitoring stations in China. The combined pollution level of the water quality was assessed using the water quality index. Based on the water quality characteristics, water quality monitoring sites in the dry and wet seasons were grouped using k-means clustering. Eleven environmental factors were evaluated using geodetector software, including six human factors and five natural factors. The results showed that there are high-risk areas for water quality pollution in the eastern and southeastern coastal regions of China in both the dry and wet seasons and that surface water pollution in China is highly spatial heterogenous in both the dry and wet seasons. Among the anthropogenic factors, urban land area is the main factor of water quality pollution in the dry season, and the explanation rate of spatial heterogeneity of integrated water quality pollution index is 20.3%. The number of poultry farms and the area of farmland explained 12.4% and 12.1% of the integrated water quality pollution index in the wet season. The nonlinear relationship between these three anthropogenic and natural factors and their interaction exacerbated water quality pollution. Based on this analysis, we identified the key factors affecting surface water quality in China during the dry and wet seasons, evaluated the achievements of the water environmental protection policies in China in recent years, and proposed future management measures for the effective prevention and control of water quality pollution in high-risk areas.