Modeling the Impact of Migration on Mosquito Population Suppression

The Wolbachia-induced incompatible insect technique is a promising strategy for controlling wild mosquito populations. However, recent experimental studies have shown that mosquito migration into target areas dilutes the strategy's effectiveness. In this work, we formulate a delay differential equation model to assess the impact of migration on mosquito population suppression. We identify that mosquito migration into an idealized target area makes it impossible to eliminate the target population completely. Our analysis identifies a lower bound of the suppression rate gamma* for a given migration number, which reveals the possible maximum reduction of wild population size in the peak season. For a given suppression rate target gamma 0 >gamma*, we identify the permitted maximum migration number D(gamma 0), above which is impossible to reduce the field mosquito density up to (1 -gamma 0) x 100% in peak season. To reduce more than 95% of Aedes albopictus population during its peak season in Guangzhou within six weeks, the required minimum release number ofWolbachia-infected males climbs steeply as the migration number increases to D(0.05).