Improving the Extreme Rainfall Forecast of Typhoon Morakot(2009) by Assimilating Radar Data from Taiwan Island and China's mainland

This study examined the impact of an improved initial field through assimilating ground-based radar data from China’s mainland and Taiwan Island to simulate the long-lasting and extreme rainfall caused by Morakot(2009). The vortex location and the subsequent track analyzed through the radial velocity data assimilation(VDA) are generally consistent with the best track. The initial humidity within the radar detecting region and Morakot’s northward translation speed can be significantly improved by the radar reflectivity data assimilation(ZDA). As a result, the heavy rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait can be reproduced with the joint application of VDA and ZDA. Based on sensitivity experiments, it was found that, without ZDA, the simulated storm underwent an unrealistic inward contraction after 12-h integration, due to underestimation of humidity in the global reanalysis, leading to underestimation of rainfall amount and coverage. Without the vortex relocation via VDA, the moister(drier) initial field with(without) ZDA will produce a more southward(northward) track, so that the rainfall location on both sides of Taiwan Strait will be affected. It was further found that the improvement in the humidity field of Morakot is mainly due to assimilation of high-value reflectivity(strong convection) observed by the radars in Taiwan Island, especially at Kenting station. By analysis of parcel trajectories and calculation of water vapor flux divergence, it was also found that the improved typhoon circulation through assimilating radar data can draw more water vapor from the environment during the subsequent simulation, eventually contributing to the extreme rainfall on both sides of Taiwan Strait.