Risk Analysis on Groundwater Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Blind Number Theory

Blind numbers of evaluation indices about groundwater re-sources carrying capacity are defined from the concomitancy of random-ness,fuzziness,grey property and unascertainment of groundwater system. Based on fuzzy theory,a comprehensive evaluation model on groundwater resources carrying capacity is constructed with blind information. Then a risk assessment model of surcharge about groundwater resources carrying capacity is established on blind reliability theory. The probable value ""matrix of fuzzy membership degree about carrying capacity corre-sponding to each judgment level can be obtained with the aid of blind algo-rithm as well as the subjective reliability "×" matrix. And then a graph of "groundwater carrying capacity v.s. accumulative reliability" can be gained. Based on the graph,fuzzy membership degree of groundwater resources carrying capacity to each judgment level under different risk probability can be got. Thus,a comparatively reasonable judgment to groundwater resources carrying capacity might be obtained,with comprehensive analy-sis to the state of society,economy technology and ecology.