Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes in China under global warming scenarios

被引：0

作者：

CHEN Huopo ^{[1
]}

SUN Jianqi ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

来源：

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2020年 / 13卷 / 01期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

极端降水; 人口暴露度; 区域模式;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P426.616 [降水引起的灾害];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

极端降水(暴雨)是我国最为主要的自然灾害之一,每年均造成巨大经济损失和人员伤亡。现有预估研究表明,未来全球持续增暖使得我国极端降水发生频次显著增加,强度增强。那么,未来极端降水增加会对社会,尤其是人们生活造成多大影响?围绕这个问题,本研究基于多个高分辨率区域气候模式模拟和人口数据,分析了未来我国极端降水人口暴露度的可能变化。结果指出,在RCP4.5-SSP2情景下,到了21世纪末,虽然预估的我国人口数量大幅减少,但极端降水人口暴露度却显著增加,相对当前气候增加了约21.6%,其中东部地区是增加最为显著的区域。进一步研究发现,人口暴露度的增加不依赖于情景的选择,但高排放情景增加幅度更大,而且增加主要是由于气候变化的贡献。

引用

页码：63 / 70

页数：8

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