中国碳排放的时空跃迁特征、影响因素与达峰路径设计

被引:13
|
作者
刘自敏 [1 ]
张娅 [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] 西南大学经济管理学院
[2] 重庆三峡水利(电力)集团股份有限公司
关键词
碳排放; 时空跃迁; 影响因素; 空间分位数回归; 碳达峰;
D O I
10.13718/j.cnki.xdsk.2022.06.009
中图分类号
X321 [区域环境规划与管理]; F124.5 [资源开发与利用];
学科分类号
020106 ; 083305 ; 1204 ;
摘要
精准应对节能减排和气候变化是经济社会长远可持续发展的关键一环。本文利用1998—2019年省级面板数据,基于碳排放时空跃迁与分位数回归相嵌套的分析框架,识别碳排放的影响因素并预测碳达峰年份与峰值。研究表明:碳排放空间集聚与分异状态共存;产业结构、能源消费结构优化和城市化均能有效降低碳排放,且碳排放具有显著行业异质性;绿色发展情景和技术突破情景均能实现“2030年碳达峰”的目标。本研究为政府改善能源约束与环境治理问题提供了参考。
引用
收藏
页码:99 / 112
页数:14
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