Prognostic value of M30/M65 for outcome of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

AIM:To determine the prognostic value of circulating indicators of cell death in acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF)patients with chronic hepatitis B virus(HBV)infection as the single etiology.METHODS:Full length and caspase cleaved cytokeratin 18(detected as M65 and M30 antigens)represent circulating indicators of necrosis and apoptosis.M65and M30 were identified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 169 subjects including healthy controls(n=33),patients with chronic hepatitis B(CHB,n=55)and patients with ACLF(n=81).According to the 3-mo survival period,ACLF patients were defined as having spontaneous recovery(n=33)and non-spontaneous recovery which included deceased patients and those who required liver transplantation(n=48).RESULTS:Both biomarker levels significantly increased gradually as liver disease progressed(for M65:P<0.001 for all;for M30:control vs CHB,P=0.072;others:P<0.001 for all).In contrast,the M30/M65 ratio was significantly higher in controls compared with CHB patients(P=0.010)or ACLF patients(P<0.001).In addition,the area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)analysis demonstrated that both biomarkers had diagnostic value(AUC≥0.80)in identifying ACLF from CHB patients.Interestingly,it is worth noting that the M30/M65 ratio was significantly different between spontaneous and non-spontaneous recovery in ACLF patients(P=0.032).The prognostic value of the M30/M65 ratio was compared with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease(MELD)and Child-Pugh scores at the 3-mo survival period,the AUC of the M30/M65ratio was 0.66 with a sensitivity of 52.9%and the highest specificity of 92.6%(MELD:AUC=0.71;sensitivity,79.4%;specificity,63.0%;Child-Pugh:AUC=0.77;sensitivity,61.8%;specificity,88.9%).CONCLUSION:M65 and M30 are strongly associated with liver disease severity.The M30/M65 ratio may be a potential prognostic marker for spontaneous recovery in patients with HBV-related ACLF.