Scenario Analysis of Tillage, Residue and Fertilization Management Effects on Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics

Based on data from 10-year field experiments on residue/fertilizer management in the dryland farming region of northern China, Century model was used to simulate the site-specific ecosystem dynamics through adjustment of the model's parameters, and the applicability of the model to propose soil organic carbon (SOC) management temporally and spatially, in cases such as of tillage/residue/fertilization management options, was identified via scenario analysis. Results between simulations and actual measurements were in close agreement when appropriate applications of stover, manure and inorganic fertilizer were combined. Simulations of extreme C/N ratios with added organic materials tended to underestimate the measured effects. Scenarios of changed tillage methods, residue practices and fertilization options showed potential to maintain and enhance SOC in the long run, while increasing inorganic N slowed down the SOC turnover rate but did not create a net C sink without any organic C input. The Century model simulation showed a good relationship between annual C inputs to the soil and the rate of C sequestration in the top 20 cm layer and provided quantitative estimations of changes in parameters crucial for sustainable land use and management. Conservation tillage practices for sustainable land use should be integrated with residue management and appreciable organic and inorganic fertilizer application, adapted according to the local residue resource, soil fertility and production conditions. At least 50% residue return into the soil was needed annually for maintenance of SOC balance, and manure amendment was important for enhancement of SOC in small crop-livestock systems in which crop residue land application was limited.