Experimental 15-day-lead statistical forecast of intraseasonal summer monsoon rainfall over Eastern China

被引：0

作者：

LI Jian-Ying ^{[1
,2
]}

MAO Jiang-Yu ^{[1
,3
]}

机构：

[1] State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences

[2] Department of Earth Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Science

来源：

AtmosphericandOceanicScienceLetters | 2016年 / 9卷 / 01期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Intraseasonal oscillations; Bayesian wavelet-banding(WB)scheme; 15-day-lead forecast;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P457.6 [降水预报];

学科分类号：

摘要：

1996年长江中下游、2002年华中南部以及2006年华南沿海地区出现了显著洪涝,并均伴随强季节内降水活动。在30–60天和10–20天这两个时间尺度上,季节内降水异常均与亚洲季风区大气季节内振荡密切相关。本文选取亚洲季风区大气季节内振荡的关键要素作为预报因子,应用贝叶斯小波频段方案对季节内降水进行了预报时效为15天的延伸期预测。该方案对这三年的季节内降水中心的预测水平均较好,预测与观测的季节内降水相关系数均在0.6以上。

引用

页码：66 / 73

页数：8

共 50 条

[1] Experimental 15-day-lead statistical forecast of intraseasonal summer monsoon rainfall over Eastern China
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