Climate Change Signal Analysis for Northeast Asian Surface Temperature

被引：0

作者：

Jeong-Hyeong LEE

Byungsoo KIM

Keon-Tae SOHN

Won-Tae KOWN

Seung-Ki MIN

机构：

[1] Busan 604-714

[2] Busan 609-735

[3] Climate Research Laboratory Meteorological Research Institute

[4] Department of Data Science Inje University

[5] Department of Statistics Pusan National University

[6] Division of Management Information Science Dong-A University

[7] Germany

[8] Kimhae 621-749

[9] Korean Meteorological Administration

[10] Seoul 156-720

[11] Seoul 156-720 Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn

来源：

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences | 2005年 / 02期

关键词：

climate change; detection; attribution; prediction; Northeast Asia;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P467 [气候变化、历史气候];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO42-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SO42- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the di

引用

页码：159 / 171

页数：13

共 6 条

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