The Chinese Carbon-Neutral Goal: Challenges and Prospects

被引:4
作者
Ning ZENG [1 ,2 ]
Kejun JIANG [3 ]
Pengfei HAN [4 ,2 ]
Zeke HAUSFATHER [5 ]
Junji CAO [6 ]
Daniel KIRKDAVIDOFF [1 ]
Shaukat ALI [7 ]
Sheng ZHOU [8 ]
机构
[1] Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center,University of Maryland
[2] State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
[3] Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission
[4] Carbon Neutrality Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
[5] Breakthrough Institute
[6] Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
[7] Global Change Impact Study Centre, Ministry of Climate Change
[8] Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University
关键词
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
X321 [区域环境规划与管理];
学科分类号
083305 ; 1204 ;
摘要
On 22 September 2020, within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The planning effort is now in full swing in China, but the pathway to decarbonization is unclear. The needed transition towards non-fossil fuel energy and its impact on China and the world may be more profound than its reform and development over the past 40 years, but the challenges are enormous. Analysis of four representative scenarios shows significant differences in achieving the carbon-neutral goal, particularly the contribution of non-fossil fuel energy sources. The high target values for nuclear, wind, and bioenergy have approached their corresponding resource limitations, with solar energy being the exception, suggesting solar's critical role. We also found that the near-term policies that allow for a gradual transition, followed by more drastic changes after 2030, can eventually reach the carbon-neutral goal and lead to less of a reduction in cumulative emissions, thus inconsistent with the IPCC 1.5°C scenario. The challenges and prospects are discussed in the historical context of China's socio-economic reform, globalization, international collaboration, and development.
引用
收藏
页码:1229 / 1242
页数:14
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