气候系统模式对于北极海冰模拟分析

被引：12

作者：

邱博 ^{[1
,2
]}

张录军 ^{[1
,2
]}

储敏 ^{[3
]}

吴统文 ^{[3
]}

谭慧慧 ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] 南京大学大气科学学院

[2] 江苏省气候变化协同创新中心

[3] 中国气象局国家气候中心

来源：

极地研究 | 2015年 / 27卷 / 01期

关键词：

北极海冰; 气候系统模式; CMIP5;

D O I：

10.13679/j.jdyj.2015.1.047

中图分类号：

P731.15 [海冰];

学科分类号：

0707 ;

摘要：

利用全球耦合模式对比计划第五阶段(CMIP5)模拟试验的结果,并与观测资料对比分析,评估了CMIP5模式对北极海冰的模拟效果。结果表明:多数模式可以较好地模拟出北极海冰的空间分布以及季节变化特征。1979—2005年北极海冰迅速减少,所有模式均模拟出北极海冰减少的趋势,但减少趋势大小与观测差别较大。在全球变化的背景下,全球地表气温升高1℃,北极海冰的面积减少1.02×106km2,而在模式中减少的北极海冰面积在0.62×106—1.68×106km2之间,说明模式对于北极海冰的模拟仍然存在很多不确定性。

引用

页码：47 / 55

页数：9

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