Seismic Inventory Simulation and Conformance Test Based on the Monte Carlo Method——A Case Study of the Fenhe-Weihe Belt

被引:0
作者
Shao Xiaoyi [1 ,2 ]
Wang Xiaoqing [1 ]
Dou Aixia [1 ]
Yuan Xiaoxiang [1 ]
机构
[1] Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration
[2] Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Volcano,Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration
基金
国家重点研发计划;
关键词
Monte Carlo method; Simulated earthquake catalogues; Seismic activity; Fenhe-Weihe seismic belt;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
P315.7 [地震观测预报];
学科分类号
070801 ;
摘要
Artificial earthquake catalogue simulation is one of the ways to effectively improve the incompleteness of the existing earthquake catalogue,the scarcity of large earthquake records and the improvement of seismological research. Based on the Poisson distribution model of seismic activity and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship,the Monte Carlo method which can describe the characteristics of the stochastic nature and the physical experiment process is used. This paper simulates the future seismic catalogues of the Fenhe-Weihe seismic belt of different durations and conducts statistical tests on them.The analysis shows that the simulation catalogue meets the set seismic activity parameters and meets the Poisson distribution hypothesis,which can obtain a better simulated earthquake catalogues that meets the seismic activity characteristics. According to the simulated earthquake catalogues,future earthquake trends in this region are analyzed to provide reference for seismic hazard analysis.
引用
收藏
页码:533 / 548
页数:16
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