Effect of increasing rainfall on the thermal–moisture dynamics of permafrost active layer in the central Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

In the past several decades, the trend of rainfall have been significantly increasing in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, which inevitably leads to a change in the surface energy balance processes and thermal-moisture status of the permafrost active layers. However, the influence of mechanisms and associated effects of increasing rainfall on active layers are still poorly understood. Therefore, in this study, a validated coupled numerical water–vapor–heat model was applied for simulating the surface energy components, liquid and vapor water migration, and energy transfer within the permafrost active layer under the action of increasing rainfall in the case of an especially wet year. The obtained results demonstrate that the surface heat flux decreases with the increase in rainfall, and the dominant form of energy exchange between the ground and atmosphere becomes the latent heat flux, which is beneficial for the preservation of permafrost. The increasing rainfall will also cause the migration of liquid and vapor water, and the migration of liquid will be more significant. The liquid and vapor water migration caused by the increasing rainfall is also accompanied by energy transfer. With the increase in rainfall, the decrease in total soil heat flux directly leads to a cooling effect on the soil, and then the upper limit of the frozen soil rises, which alleviates the degradation of permafrost. These results provide further insights into engineering structures, regional ecological climate change, hydrology, and environmental issues in permafrost regions.