Failure probability estimation of overhead transmission lines considering spatial and temporal variation in severe weather

被引：3

作者：

Shuai YANG ^{[1
]}

Wenjun ZHOU ^{[1
]}

Shiyang ZHU ^{[2
]}

Le WANG ^{[2
]}

Lisha YE ^{[3
]}

Xuezhi XIA ^{[1
]}

Han LI ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University

[2] Electric Power Research Institute, Guangxi Power Grid Co,Ltd

[3] Hubei Electric Engineering

来源：

JournalofModernPowerSystemsandCleanEnergy | 2019年 / 7卷 / 01期

关键词：

Severe weather; Transmission line; Poisson model; Failure probability; Regression analysis;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TM75 [线路及杆塔];

学科分类号：

摘要：

Estimation for weather-related failure probability of overhead transmission lines is essential in the reliability assessment of a power system.This paper analyzes the outage and weather data of 110 kV overhead transmission lines in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China during 2011–2014.The result reveals obvious uneven distributions of outage events for time and space due to the spatial and temporal variation of severe weather.Based on the results, an estimation method is proposed in this paper.Split and aggregation is used to smooth the outage and weather data.The poisson model is adopted in our method to investigate the statistic characteristics of transmission line outage events.Regression analysis is applied to obtain the correlation between the weather intensity and history failure rate.Furthermore the method proposed is validated against the empirical outage data.

引用

页码：131 / 138

页数：8

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