Risk factors for fatal recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma and their role in selecting candidates for liver transplantation

BACKGROUND:With the maturation and popularization of skills in liver transplantation (LT), patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have an alternative choice. LT as a curative treatment for HCC provides good liver function and systemic condition to recipients. Preoperative tumor characteristics are critical in selecting optimal candidates for LT to optimize the use of donor livers and to achieve a long-term survival. The present study aimed to elucidate the risk factors of HCC involved in fatal recurrence in the first year after LT and to investigate their utility in selecting suitable candidates for LT. METHODS: From April 2002 to October 2005, 303 patients who had received orthotopic LT for HCC were reviewed. Of these patients, those with diffuse intrahepatic or multiple systemic recurrent lesions who died within 1 year after surgery were investigated as fatal recurrence group (48 patients) and the remaining patients including those who were disease-free without recurrence, those who were alive with recurrence in the first year, or those who died in the first year of other causes, served as control group (255). The two groups were compared by demographics, tumor, and histopathological characteristics for their prognostic significance by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis between the fatal recurrence group and the control group showed that the presence of vascular invasion, a tumor size greater than 6.5 cm, and a preoperative serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level greater than 1000 μg/L were risk factors for fatal recurrence. Increased risk factors reduced the suitability of candidates for LT and diminished survival in the first year. 85.71% of the patients with all three risk factors, 37.84% of those with two factors, 13.64% of those with one factor, and 6.71% of those without risk factors died from tumor recurrence within 1 year after transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: Vascular invasion, tumor size ≥6.5 cm, and preoperative serum AFP level ≥1000 μg/L were significant predictors of fatal recurrence after LT for HCC. Patients with two or more risk factors should not be candidates for LT.