Recurrence risk model for esophageal cancer after radical surgery

Objective:The aim of the present study was to construct a risk assessment model which was tested by disease-free survival(DFS)of esophageal cancer after radical surgery.Methods:A total of 164 consecutive esophageal cancer patients who had undergone radical surgery between January 2005 and December 2006 were retrospectively analyzed.The cutpoint of value at risk(VaR)was inferred by stem-and-leaf plot,as well as by independent-samples t-test for recurrence-free time,further confirmed by crosstab chi-square test,univariate analysis and Cox regression analysis for DFS.Results:The cutpoint of VaR was 0.3 on the basis of our model.The rate of recurrence was 30.3%(30/99)and 52.3%(34/65)in VaR<0.3 and VaR≥0.3(chi-square test,χ2=7.984,P=0.005),respectively.The 1-,3-,and 5-year DFS of esophageal cancer after radical surgery was 70.4%,48.7%,and 45.3%,respectively in VaR≥0.3,whereas 91.5%,75.8%,and 67.3%,respectively in VaR<0.3(Log-rank test,χ2=9.59,P=0.0020),and further confirmed by Cox regression analysis[hazard ratio=2.10,95%confidence interval(CI):1.2649-3.4751;P=0.0041].Conclusions:The model could be applied for integrated assessment of recurrence risk after radical surgery for esophageal cancer.