Spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of homeownership rates in China: Evidence from 336 prefecture-level and above cities

Homeownership is pivotal for social stability and urban quality of life. While existing research has mainly explored housing rental and purchase consumption behavior decisions at individual level, spatial disparities in homeownership rates at city level remain understudied, particularly in developing countries. Drawing on prefecture-level data from China's 2000, 2010, and 2020 National Population Censuses, this study examines the spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of homeownership rates in 336 prefecture-level and above cities. The results shows that from 2000 to 2020, homeownership rates in Chinese cities display a trend of initial increase followed by decline, with widening regional disparities and significant spatial clustering patterns. The spatial distribution of homeownership rates shows a tendency towards "homogenization" and an inverse "core-periphery" structure. Furthermore, Spatial econometric modelling results indicate that housing area per capita, household size, and average years of education exhibit consistent and significant positive effects on homeownership rates in China. Conversely, the average price of residential commercial housing, the proportion of migrant populations, and the proportion of ethnic minorities demonstrate stable and significant negative impacts. Last, Geodetector model further pinpoints the proportion of migrant populations, the proportion of secondary and tertiary sectors employment, and urbanization rate as the principal determinants underpinning the spatial disparities in homeownership rates. These findings enhance understanding of city housing tenure dynamics in China and provide insights for devising equitable housing policies and fostering sustainable urban development initiatives.