Spraying Conflict: Aerial Drug Eradication and Armed Violence in Colombia

How do state interventions targeting illicit economies influence armed violence? Using Colombia as a critical case, we argue that aerial spraying of coca crops exacerbates violence by destabilizing local power dynamics and disrupting interactions among armed actors, civilians, and the state. Using municipal-level data from 2000 to 2015, we find that aerial spraying increases overall levels of violence in affected areas. Aerial spraying, we find, propitiates retaliatory violence against the state, stimulates turf wars between armed organizations, and produces civilian victimization. Moreover, we show that paramilitaries and criminal organizations respond more sharply to aerial spraying, escalating retaliation against the state and violence against civilians. By contrast, insurgent violence remains more consistent, driven by ideological goals and largely independent of eradication efforts. These findings reveal how fleeting large-scale interventions can inadvertently fuel conflict by altering the strategic equilibria of violent actors in illicit economies.