See the Light: Modeling Solar Performance using Multispectral Satellite Data

Developing accurate solar performance models, which infer solar output from widely available external data sources, is increasingly important as the grid's solar capacity rises. These models are important for a wide range of solar analytics, including solar forecasting, resource estimation, and fault detection. The most significant error in existing models is inaccurate estimates of clouds' effect on solar output, as cloud formations and their impact on solar radiation are highly complex. In 2018 and 2019, respectively, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S. began releasing multispectral data comprising 16 different light wavelengths (or channels) from the GOES-16 and GOES-17 satellites every 5 minutes. Enough channel data is now available to learn solar performance models using machine learning (ML). In this paper, we show how to develop both local and global solar performance models using ML on multispectral data, and compare their accuracy to existing physical models based on ground-level weather readings and on NOAA's estimates of downward shortwave radiation (DSR), which also derive from multispectral data but using a physical model. We show that ML-based solar performance models based on multispectral data are much more accurate than weather- or DSR-based models, improving the average MAPE across 29 solar sites by over 50% for local models and 25% for global models.