Efficient epistasis inference via higher-order covariance matrix factorization

Epistasis can profoundly influence evolutionary dynamics. Temporal genetic data, consisting of sequences sampled repeatedly from a population over time, provides a unique resource to understand how epistasis shapes evolution. However, detecting epistatic interactions from sequence data is technically challenging. Existing methods for identifying epistasis are computationally demanding, limiting their applicability to real-world data. Here, we present a novel computational method for inferring epistasis that substantially reduces computational costs without sacrificing accuracy. We validated our approach in simulations and applied it to study HIV-1 evolution over multiple years in a data set of 16 individuals. There we observed a strong excess of negative epistatic interactions between beneficial mutations, especially mutations involved in immune escape. Our method is general and could be used to characterize epistasis in other large data sets.