PREDICTING THE CURRENT AND FUTURE DISTRIBUTION OF THE BAMBOO LEAF ROLLER (ALGEDONIA COCLESALIS) IN CHINA USING THE MAXENT MODEL: IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR HABITAT SUITABILITY AND DISTRIBUTION SHIFTS

Climate change has significantly altered the geographical distribution of numerous pest species, raising concerns about their potential impacts on ecosystems and economies. The bamboo leaf roller (Algedonia coclesalis), a major pest of bamboo forests in China, poses severe threats to the ecological balance and commercial bamboo production. This study employs the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the current and future distributions of A. coclesalis in China under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 126, 370, and 585 (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Key environmental variables, including precipitation of the driest month (bio14), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), and surface solar radiation, were identified as dominant factors influencing the distribution of A. coclesalis. Results reveal significant northward, westward, and southward expansion of high suitability area, with northern provinces such as Hubei, Henan, and Shanxi emerging as new high-risk zones for bamboo forests. The study provides critical insights into pest management strategies, emphasizing the importance of early detection, integrated pest management, and cross-regional collaboration to mitigate ecological and economic risks.