Incidence and predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a population-based cohort study in Abu Dhabi

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a global health burden. Monitoring its determinants and incidence trends is important for identifying risk factors and projecting future health service needs. The Abu Dhabi Risk Study (ADRS) is a retrospective cohort study of 8699 participants in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), with an average follow-up period of 9.2 years. This study reports the prevalence of diabetes in this cohort, as well as the incidence of diabetes among the 6,772 participants who were diabetes-free at the start of the follow-up period in 2011-2013. Cox regression was used to develop a prediction model and identify significant determinants. Over the 12-year follow-up period, 643 individuals developed new diabetes, with an overall incidence of 7.4%. The prevalence of diabetes DM increased to 28.5%. Reaching 25.3% in females and 31.9% among males. Significant risk factors for developing new diabetes were a higher level of HBA1C, current smoking status at screening, and a higher level of eGFR. The model developed showed good performance in predicting new diabetes with a c-statistic of 0.837 (0.818-0.856), a sensitivity of 75.1%, and a specificity of 78.1%. Determinants of developing pre-DM included higher Diastolic Blood Pressure (DBP), total cholesterol, Random Blood Sugar (RBS), Body Mass Index (BMI), age, and lower High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL) levels. Gender and smoking status were not significant determinants for the diagnosis of prediabetes. The cumulative prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes is increasing steadily, with a plateau reached at 40 in the case of pre-DM and 60 with DM, and a decline with increasing age. The prevalence of diabetes in Abu Dhabi remains high. The Derived model is valuable for informing clinical practice and preventing diabetes.