Evaluating the impact of policy interventions on CO2 emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces the dual challenge of expanding energy access while minimizing environmental impact. Despite relatively low current emissions, rapid urbanization and industrialization threaten to significantly increase the region's carbon footprint. This study examines the relationship between energy consumption and CO2 emissions in SSA using Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate various electricity consumption scenarios. Employing 10,000 simulations, the analysis quantifies uncertainties in emission projections under different policy frameworks. The results show that a combined approach of energy efficiency improvements (10 %) and renewable energy adoption (20 %) can reduce emissions by 17 % compared to the base case, lowering CO2 emissions from 1.19 to 0.99 t per capita. The renewable energy scenario alone achieved an 11 % reduction, while energy efficiency yielded a 5 % reduction. An aggressive policy scenario with 15 % improvements across all parameters demonstrated diminishing returns, achieving only an additional 1.5 % reduction beyond the combined approach. Sensitivity analysis revealed that emissions outcomes are most responsive to energy efficiency improvements, moderately sensitive to renewable energy adoption, and less sensitive to policy effectiveness. Maintaining current policies would keep emissions at 1.19 t per capita with higher variability (standard deviation of 0.59), threatening environmental sustainability. The study highlights the importance of strategic policies promoting sustainable energy practices and provides essential insights for effective energy management in the region, advocating for robust frameworks supporting a clean energy transition.